As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 25% probability that Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028. 5 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Resolved using The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News and The Washington Post.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2028” leads at 25%, down from 52% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jul 1, 2027”, is at 17%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2027.
