As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 60% probability that Timothée Chalamet is on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before Jan 1, 2027. 35 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Timothée Chalamet”: If Timothée Chalamet is on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Timothée Chalamet appears solely in an advertisement, or solely via a prerecorded audioclip that was not recorded for purposes of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (e.g., the host playing a portion of a speech or song excerpt by Timothée Chalamet), the Payout Criterion is not satisfied. Resolved using Apple Podcasts, The Source Agencies are and HBO Max.
This Entertainment market on OpinionKings has 35 outcomes. “Timothée Chalamet” leads at 60%, down from 76% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Bad Bunny”, is at 30%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
