As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 96% probability that US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $200 billion. 8 outcomes · resolves May 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above $200 billion”: If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $200 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Above $200 billion” leads at 96%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above $100 billion”, is at 94%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 31, 2027.
