As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 3% probability that a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market encompasses the primary southeastern islands of the state of Hawaii. Those islands are: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui, and the island of Hawai'i. It does not include the Midway Atoll, nor the Northwestern Islands, also known as the Leeward Hawaiian Islands. Resolved using AccuWeather, NBC and Associated Press.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 3%, down from 5% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
