As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 99% probability that A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1440 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027. 17 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “above 1440”: If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1440 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Any Gemini model added to the leaderboard labeled as "Gemini 3.5 Pro" or greater will qualify. If multiple qualifying models are added, the highest scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added following the initial qualifying model will not count. Resolved using LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
