As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -9.5% of GDP. 7 outcomes · resolves Apr 20, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above -9.5% of GDP”: If China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -9.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: Negative values represent budget deficits. A higher, less-negative value represents a smaller deficit. For example, −4.0% is above −5.0%. “General government net lending/borrowing” is calculated as government revenue minus total expenditure. A negative value represents net borrowing, or a deficit, while a positive value represents net lending, or a surplus. Resolved using International Monetary Fund.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Above -9.5% of GDP” leads at 95%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above -9.0% of GDP”, is at 93%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Apr 20, 2027.
