As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 12% probability that the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion. 2 outcomes · resolves Feb 4, 2027.
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If the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table. For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 12%, up from 10% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Feb 4, 2027.
