As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 25% probability that Rahm Emanuel is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028. 33 outcomes · resolves Oct 31, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Rahm Emanuel”: If Rahm Emanuel is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. Resolved using ABC, The Wall Street Journal and Ballotpedia.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 33 outcomes. “Rahm Emanuel” leads at 25%, down from 30% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Ro Khanna”, is at 20%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Oct 31, 2028.
