As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 91% probability that the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.0°C. 5 outcomes · resolves Apr 5, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 2.0°C”: If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.0°C, then the market resolves to Yes. The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. Resolved using San Francisco Unified School District.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “At least 2.0°C” leads at 91%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Below 0.5°C”, is at 2%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Apr 5, 2027.
