As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 87% probability that the all-hours average real-time power price at ERCOT North Hub is above $20/MWh in November 2026. 7 outcomes · resolves Dec 1, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above $20/MWh”: If the all-hours average real-time power price at ERCOT North Hub is above $20/MWh in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Period: November 1, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT to December 1, 2026 at 1:00 AM EST. Includes the start; excludes the end. Source: ERCOT’s 15-minute real-time Settlement Point Prices (NP6-905-CD). Intervals follow ERCOT’s Central-time operating days and delivery-interval conventions; repeated daylight-saving intervals count separately. Calculation: Simple average of all applicable 15-minute prices, including negative prices. Resolved using Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCOT).
