As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 17% probability that SpaceX lands anything successfully on Mars before Jan 1, 2030. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If SpaceX lands anything successfully on Mars before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using SpaceX and The New York Times.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 17%, unchanged from a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2030.
