As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 93% probability that the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027. 15 outcomes · resolves Feb 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Below 45”: If the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using United States Congress.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 15 outcomes. “Below 45” leads at 93%, up from 90% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “45”, is at 1%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Feb 1, 2027.
