As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 75% probability that Pete Hegseth has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029. 53 outcomes · resolves Jan 21, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Pete Hegseth”: If Pete Hegseth has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using White House and New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 53 outcomes. “Pete Hegseth” leads at 75%, up from 64% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Donald Trump”, is at 70%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 21, 2029.
