As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 34% probability that California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85. 2 outcomes · resolves Feb 23, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 34%, down from 35% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Feb 23, 2027.
