As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that Mississippi has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027. 20 outcomes · resolves Jan 2, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Mississippi”: If Mississippi has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. Resolved using CBS News, Fox News and ABC.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 20 outcomes. “Mississippi” leads at 97%, up from 92% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Alaska”, is at 3%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 2, 2027.
