As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 8% probability that a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028. 2 outcomes · resolves Sep 8, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation. Resolved using The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal and Al Jazeera.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 8%, down from 13% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Sep 8, 2028.
