As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 62% probability that Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 36%. 7 outcomes · resolves Jan 7, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Below 36%”: If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 36%, then the market resolves to Yes. In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Below 36%” leads at 62%, down from 75% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Below 35.5%”, is at 43%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 7, 2027.
