As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 17% probability that the US has 3317.5 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2030. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2035.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “By 2030”: If the US has 3317.5 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using EPA.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “By 2030” leads at 17%, up from 16% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “By 2025”, is at 8%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2035.
