As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 94% probability that Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election. 16 outcomes · resolves Jan 3, 2027.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Mississippi”: If Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Harris won. Resolved using Iowa Secretary of State, Alaska Division of Elections and South Carolina State Election Commission.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 16 outcomes. “Mississippi” leads at 94%, up from 84% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “South Carolina”, is at 3%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 3, 2027.
