As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 21% probability that the President signs between 400 and 449 Executive Orders during his second term. 12 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Between 400 and 449”: If the President signs between 400 and 449 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to, using ET timezone. Resolved using Federal Register.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 12 outcomes. “Between 400 and 449” leads at 21%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Between 450 and 499”, is at 18%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
