As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 63% probability that at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 25”: If at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person. Cumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Resolved using Neuralink, Barrow Neurological Institute and Elon Musk.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “At least 25” leads at 63%, down from 71% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 30”, is at 52%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
