As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 20% probability that John Fetterman leaves, announces that they are leaving, is expelled from, or stops caucusing with the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If John Fetterman leaves, announces that they are leaving, is expelled from, or stops caucusing with the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. John Fetterman leaves the Democratic party if, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, any of the following occurs: John Fetterman changes their official party registration from the Democratic party to another party or to independent or unaffiliated status. John Fetterman announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic party. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2028” leads at 20%, down from 43% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Aug 1, 2027”, is at 18%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2028.
