As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 51% probability that the answer to “Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?” is “Critical minerals”. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Critical minerals”: If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the issuance of an executive action, independent of the effective date or whether the tariffs are subsequently implemented. Resolved using Federal Register.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Critical minerals” leads at 51%, up from 25% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Foreign-made films”, is at 9%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
