As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 92% probability that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before Jan 1, 2029. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2028.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2029”: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. Resolved using Reuters.
