As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 78% probability that marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Jan 20, 2029. 6 outcomes · resolves Jan 19, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 20, 2029”: If marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the DEA were to reschedule only certain cannabis derivatives or specific cannabinoids (e.g., move THC or a particular cannabis-derived pharmaceutical to a different schedule) without reclassifying marijuana/cannabis as a whole, that would not qualify as rescheduling marijuana for this contract. Ending the schedule altogether would resolve the market to Yes. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Before Jan 20, 2029” leads at 78%, down from 81% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2028”, is at 69%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 19, 2029.
