As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 5% probability that any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%. 14 outcomes · resolves Jan 8, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 4.5%”: If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 14 outcomes. “Above 4.5%” leads at 5%, down from 12% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 5%”, is at 4%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 8, 2027.
