As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 2% probability that the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 8, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME. Revisions to previously published values will not be considered. The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession. A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 2%, down from 4% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 8, 2027.
