As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 25% probability that any sitting member of the United States Congress has announced that they have changed or will change their political party affiliation after Mar 11, 2026 and before 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If any sitting member of the United States Congress has announced that they have changed or will change their political party affiliation after Mar 11, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This Payout Criterion includes a member switching from partisan affiliation to independent, or independent to a given political party. This Payout Criterion also includes a member of Congress announcing that they will run for the next Congressional office, or in another future political campaign, in a different party's primary. Resolved using The New York Times and Politico.
