As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 40% probability that the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Jan 1, 2028. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A decision qualifies if the UK government announces that it will not transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, including by abandoning the May 22, 2025 UK-Mauritius treaty or agreeing to a replacement arrangement under which the UK retains sovereignty over Diego Garcia. Resolved using Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street and Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.
