As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 14% probability that Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2028. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2028”: If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement of resignation within the next year counts for resolution even before it takes effect. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
