As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 14% probability that there are more than 100000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027. 6 outcomes · resolves Mar 4, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “More than 100,000”: If there are more than 100000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. At the time of issuance, 2.738 Million Federal Employees are reported for the December 2025 figure. Resolved using FRED.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “More than 100,000” leads at 14%, down from 15% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “More than 150,000”, is at 10%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 4, 2027.
