As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 11% probability that John Brennan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027. 26 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “John Brennan”: If John Brennan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes. Resolved using Fox News, Semafor and ABC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 26 outcomes. “John Brennan” leads at 11%, down from 17% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Ilhan Omar”, is at 7%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
