As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 92% probability that the Kentucky Distillers’ Association reports that the number of Bourbon barrels aging in Kentucky as of January 1, 2026 was above 15.5 million barrels. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 15.5 million barrels”: If the Kentucky Distillers’ Association reports that the number of Bourbon barrels aging in Kentucky as of January 1, 2026 was above 15.5 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the statewide Bourbon barrel inventory derived from inventories submitted by Kentucky distilleries and warehousing companies to the Kentucky Department of Revenue. Only barrels containing Bourbon will count; barrels containing other aging spirits will not. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Above 15.5 million barrels” leads at 92%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 16.0 million barrels”, is at 92%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
