As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 9% probability that Donald Trump makes at least 1 statement explicitly calling for or endorsing a global pause, pacing, or slowdown in frontier AI development before Jan 1, 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If Donald Trump makes at least 1 statement explicitly calling for or endorsing a global pause, pacing, or slowdown in frontier AI development before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Pause, pacing, and slowdown include a temporary halt or a deliberate reduction in the rate of frontier AI research, training, or capability development; a complete halt is not required. Frontier AI means leading general-purpose AI systems and development of their successors. The call must concern development generally on a worldwide basis or through coordinated action across countries. Resolved using Donald Trump, CBS and Truth Social verified @realDonaldTrump.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 9%, down from 10% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
