As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 94% probability that real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5. 9 outcomes · resolves Jan 28, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 1.5%”: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA. Resolved using Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 9 outcomes. “Above 1.5%” leads at 94%, up from 86% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 0.0%”, is at 94%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 28, 2027.
