As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 26% probability that Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028. 10 outcomes · resolves Nov 6, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Andy Beshear”: If Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. Resolved using ABC, The Wall Street Journal and Ballotpedia.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 10 outcomes. “Andy Beshear” leads at 26%, up from 25% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Pete Buttigieg”, is at 24%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 6, 2028.
