As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 51% probability that legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law before Jan 1, 2030. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2030”: If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates. Resolved using White House and Library of Congress.
