As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 100% probability that the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 28th District by 8 percentage points or more. 8 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Cuellar, 8+ pts”: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 28th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Cuellar, 8+ pts” leads at 100%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Cuellar, 11+ pts”, is at 99%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 3, 2027.
