As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%. 8 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “No, ≥1%”: If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or the option that finishes first if No loses.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “No, ≥1%” leads at 97%, up from 95% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “No, ≥4%”, is at 79%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 3, 2027.
