As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 58% probability that a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2039.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2040”: If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Science, Nature Physics and IEEE Transactions on Quantum Engineering.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Before 2040” leads at 58%, down from 62% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2035”, is at 50%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2039.
