As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 are above 9.4 million. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 9.4 million”: If Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 are above 9.4 million, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships, as reported by the State of Hawaii. It does not use visitor days, average daily census, airport passenger throughput, or arrivals to an individual island. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “Above 9.4 million” leads at 97%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 9.6 million”, is at 76%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 31, 2027.
