As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 63% probability that the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. 3 outcomes · resolves May 7, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan”: If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan” leads at 63%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Ekrem İmamoğlu”, is at 21%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 7, 2029.
