As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 21% probability that there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 31, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. Resolved using Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 21%, down from 23% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 31, 2028.
