As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 2% probability that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue. A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement. Resolved using The Verge, ABC and Fox News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 2%, unchanged from a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
