As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 11% probability that a bill that eliminates USAID or ends all of its funding becomes law, or the President uses authority granted by Congress to do so, before Jan 20, 2029. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “USAID”: If a bill that eliminates USAID or ends all of its funding becomes law after Issuance, or the President uses authority granted by Congress to do so, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. A bill counts whether it is enacted on its own or as a provision of a larger bill, such as an appropriations act or a continuing resolution. Merging the agency's authorities with another agency counts. Resolved using Library of Congress and The New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “USAID” leads at 11%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “EPA”, is at 8%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
