As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 4% probability that the answer to “Which countries will have a recession before 2027?” is “China”. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Japan”: If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The exact dataset for Japan is GDP, real, seasonally adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF. Resolved using IMF.
