As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 10% probability that xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2027”: If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Before 2027” leads at 10%, down from 17% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before December”, is at 3%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
