As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 98% probability that the Republican party wins the Alaska State Senate in 2026. 2 outcomes · resolves Feb 2, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Republican party”: If the Republican party wins the Alaska State Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the State Senate is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Resolved using The New York Times.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Republican party” leads at 98%, up from 93% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Democratic party”, is at 2%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Feb 2, 2027.
