As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 33% probability that the U.S. federal government creates a new city on federal land before Jan 20, 2029. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 20, 2029”: If the U.S. federal government creates a new city on federal land after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Creating a city means the U.S. federal government formally incorporates or grants a federal charter to a new municipality, or grants land to a state or territory for the purpose of chartering a new city. Resolved using White House and The New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Before Jan 20, 2029” leads at 33%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2028”, is at 12%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
