As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 51% probability that Pablo Hernández de Cos formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so. 7 outcomes · resolves Jan 8, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Pablo Hernández de Cos”: If Pablo Hernández de Cos formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. Resolved using European Central Bank.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Pablo Hernández de Cos” leads at 51%, up from 34% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Klaas Knot”, is at 34%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 8, 2028.
